1 · An explanation that seems plausible
A study group agrees to put phones away during a work session. At the next meeting, the tasks are finished sooner.
We finish sooner now that we put our phones away. It must be the new rule.
FROM EVERYDAY LIFE TO WAYS OF THINKING
Did the new rule really make a difference?
Something improves after a change. That does not yet tell us its cause with certainty.
One situation, two perspectives
2 · Another possible explanation
Someone points out what else was different at this meeting.
The rule might help. But today the tasks were shorter, and we already knew the topic.
What can we notice?
Finishing sooner is an observation; explaining it by the rule is initially a hypothesis. The sequence of events fits that explanation but does not rule out other influences. When task length and prior knowledge also vary, this single comparison cannot isolate the effect of the rule.
TRY IT YOURSELF
Change the example.
Draw three columns: “Observed”, “Proposed explanation” and “What else was different?” Fill them in for the study group. Then consider which further, reasonably comparable meetings could test the explanation without assuming the desired answer.
Your question to take further
What observation would support my explanation, and what would make me revise it?
Take your question further.
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